Sudan and South Sudan Telecommunications Q4 2018
We have made modest revisions to our extended forecast outlook, to account for the latest market trends. In theSudanese market, 3G/4G uptake will be a key growth vector of the mobile market owing to operators such as Zain and Sudani'sdeployment of LTE networks. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic challenges and persisting political and humanitarian crises willcontinue to limit the subscription growth potential of the overall mobile market. These protracted systemic issues are furtherhighlighted by the mobile market ending December 2017 with a -20.5% y-o-y contraction rate. We do not expect the market to pickup until 2020 at the earliest. Additionally, the near-term contractions will be compounded by the government’s telecoms taxincrease, introduced in the 2017/18 budget and effective from February 2018. On a positive note, beyond 2021, both markets offersignificant organic growth potential that will be unlocked once their economic and security situations begin to brighten.
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