Sudan and South Sudan Telecommunications Q1 2019
We have made modest revisions to our extended forecast outlook, to account for the latest market trends. In the Sudan,the mobile market still contains a degree of organic subscriber growth and we have revised upwards our 3G/4G forecasts toaccount for Zain's LTE deployment in Q216 and Sudani deploying its 4G services in Q217 as well as increased operator investmentin network infrastructure. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic challenges and persisting political and humanitarian crises willcontinue to limit the subscription growth potential of the overall mobile market. Our revised forecast sees the market ending 2018with a total of 29.73mn subscribers, a figure we see growing to 31.9mn over the medium-term to 2022 and reaching over 33.3mnout to 2027. We note that periodical inactive SIM discounting will continue to weigh on the market's growth. We do not expect themarket to pick up until 2020 at the earliest. However, beyond 2021, both markets offer significant organic growth potential that willbe unlocked once their economic and security situations begin to brighten.
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