Sudan and South Sudan Food and Drink Report Q2 2016
BMI View: The decline in oil prices has put Sudan and South Sudan on divergent economic paths. Lowerfuel costs will provide a boost to Sudanese consumers over the coming quarters and have helped stabiliseinflation and the overall economy. South Sudan is suffering from currency devaluation and hyperinflation.
While we forecast a rise in per capita food consumption, this will largely be driven by inflation and lowbase effects in both markets. While these factors will provide some respite to Sudanese households, they areunlikely to meaningfully alter what remains a highly challenging environment. Insecurity will continue toundermine household income growth, making it difficult for food and drink companies operating in themarket.
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Per capita food sales are forecast to increase by 16.7% in 2016 in local currency. For the period 2015 to2020, we forecast compound annual growth of 13.6%.
SABMiller has said that it will halt its South Sudan operations by March 2016 as it cannot access foreigncurrency for the raw materials needed to run the business. It has failed to turn a profit since entering thecountry in 2009.
Political risk remains the most salient threat to our outlook, as a further deterioration of the securitysituation could further threaten the economic stability and long-term outlook for both countries. The priceof oil represents another important risk to our forecasts, both positive and negative, given that bothcountries are among Africa's top crude producers.
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