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Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Sudanese growth will be subdued over our short-term outlook as inflation dents consumer purchasing power and constraints to fiscal spending undercut the prospects for public investment. That said, we expect economic activity to speed up in the coming years, as foreign firms gradually increase investment into the country, given the lifting of US trade and financial sanctions and greater ease of foreign investment.

High inflation and the slow-moving impact of sanctions removal on Sudan's economy will likely mean that domestic political risks will remain elevated in the short term. That said, we believe that foreign relations will continue to brighten, and recent developments, such as new talks between Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Sudan's potential removal from the US sponsors of terrorism list show further upside risks.

Growth in South Sudan will remain below potential in the coming quarters despite the agreement of a peace deal between the government and rebels. The main tailwinds to growth will come from rising oil prices and cooling inflation, though the fiscal position and the logistics environment will remain weak, preventing a more robust growth recovery.

Despite the signing of a peace deal between South Sudan's President Salva Kiir Mayardit and rebel leader Riek Machar, we believe that South Sudan's political environment will likely remain highly unstable.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic - SWOT Analysis
Political - SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Sudan Economic Growth Outlook
High Prices And Fiscal Risks Undercut Sudan's Short-Term Growth Potential
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
South Sudan Economic Growth Outlook
Multiple Headwinds To South Sudanese Growth Despite Peace Deal
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Sudanese Economy To 2027
Sanctions Removal And Investment Will Boost Outlook
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Sudan & South Sudan Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsThe South Sudanese Economy To 2027
A Potential Unrealised
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Sudan Domestic Politics
High Sudanese Inflation Offers Political Headwinds
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Instability Will Be Sustained In The Long Term
South Sudan Domestic Politics
Severe Downside Risks To South Sudan Despite Peace Deal
Long-Term Political Outlook
Ethnic Conflicts, Lack Of Political Institutions To Sustain Instability
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SUDAN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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