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Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Sudan's economy is likely to see sluggish growth in 2018, as elevated inflation places persistent pressure on consumer spending, and fixed investment remains subdued. The removal of US sanctions and improvements to the business environment will offer economic tailwinds over the longer term, though persistent security-related challenges will temper the extent of gains.

While the release of political prisoners in Sudan offers concessions to opposition politicians as part of the National Dialogue process, this is unlikely to represent efforts at wider reform, with a poor economic situation in the country set to offer continued risks. Meanwhile, ten-sions between Sudan and Egypt will sustain risks from abroad.

Sudan's external position will improve in the coming years, as a weaker currency leads to a narrower current account deficit and the removal of sanctions increases inward investment. That said, the country's very high debt burden will continue to pose significant risks.

While South Sudan's balance of payments dynamics are set to improve in the coming years, owing to rising oil prices, the country will still face severe challenges. Political instability will constrain investment, keeping the outlook for economic growth weak.

We expect the political environment in South Sudan to remain highly unstable in the coming months despite a new round of peace talks, with the operating environment still beset by violence. A potential election in 2018 could worsen the outlook further.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Sudan Economic Growth Outlook
Inflation Will Present Key Challenge To Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Increasing Investment Will Support External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
South Sudan Economic Growth Outlook
Structural Headwinds Will Forestall Improvement In External Accounts
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Sudanese Economy To 2027
Opportunities For Growth Despite Challenging Environment
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
The South Sudanese Economy To 2027
A Potential Unrealised
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Sudan Domestic Politics
Release Of Political Prisoners Offers Little Upside
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Dissatisfaction With Regime And Insurgencies Will Sustain Instability
South Sudan Domestic Politics
Peace Talks Unlikely To Bolster Long-Term Stability
Long-Term Political Outlook
Long-Term Political Outlook – Years Of Instability Ahead
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME RISKS
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Signs Of Weakness, But Global Expansion Broadening
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: SUDAN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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