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Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Reports Q2 2015

Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Reports Q2 2015

Core Views

While hopes of genuine political reform have been raised of late, a peaceful outcome to the country's ongoing governance malaise in time for general elections in April 2015 remains unlikely.

Economic conditions in Sudan will improve over the coming quarters, but nonetheless remain challenging. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2015 from an estimated 2.6% in 2014.

Sudan's inflation prospects have improved of late and we predict that price growth will average 21.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015 compared to an estimated 37.4% y-o-y in 2014. The wearing-off of high base effects (associated with the September 2013 currency devaluation), favourable agricultural production prospects and a greater degree of exchange rate stability will help to anchor inflation.

Major Forecast Changes

No major forecast changes

Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Elections A Mere Formality
A fresh centralisation of powers by President Omar al-Bashir in early January underlines the superficial nature of the year-old 'national
dialogue,' ahead of elections in April that will bestow a fresh five-year mandate for both al-Bashir and the ruling party.
Foreign Policy
China To Exert Moderating Influence
Sudan's relations with its southern neighbour remain strained, but the intervention of China, which is deploying a 700-strong infantry
battalion to war-torn South Sudan, should keep the bilateral situation largely contained, even if, as seems likely, the war in the south
persists for some time yet.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Sudan Economic Activity
Easing Inflation To Support Growth In 2015
Economic growth in Sudan will accelerate in 2015 aided by falling inflation, robust agricultural production and rising gold exports. That
said, conditions remain challenging and risks are weighted to firmly to the downside.
TABLE: Eco nomic Act ivity
Sudan Inflation/FX
Inflation To Moderate In 2015
Inflation in Sudan will moderate in 2015 due to lower fuel prices, favourable agricultural production prospects and improved exchange
rate stability. Risks are weighted to the upside due to persistent insecurity.
TABLE: Mo netar y Pol icy
South Sudan investment climate
New Year To Bring Same Old Story
A year after fighting first broke out in South Sudan a lasting peace agreement continues to prove elusive. Hostilities will resume over the
coming months following a lull in fighting due to heavy seasonal rains. International mediation efforts are likely to yield little.
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The South Sudanese Economy To 2024
The South Sudanese economy is among the most underdeveloped in all of Sub-Saharan Africa, and has significant potential due to its
huge oil reserves, expanding population, large amount of arable land, and proposed integration with East African nations. However, it
faces serious challenges in order to fulfil this potential, including security concerns with its neighbour to the north and among rival ethnic
groups, a gaping infrastructure deficit, and a lack of human or physical capital.
TABLE: Long-Ter m Macroeco nomic Forecasts
The Sudanese Economy To 2024
Secession Poses Key Risk For Long-Term Growth
There is strong economic growth potential in the non-oil sector, but the uncertainties related to the secession of South Sudan generate
risks for many variables, particularly the fiscal accounts. .
TABLE: Long-Ter m Macroeco nomic Forecasts
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
SWOT Analysis
Operational Risk Index
Operational Risk
TABLE: Operat ional Risk
Availability Of Labour
TABLE: Sub -Sahara n Afr ica – Availab ility Of Labour Risk
TABLE: Suda n – Top 10 Cou ntr y Sources For Migra nts
Crime Risk
TABLE: Sub -Sahara n Afr ica - Crime Risks
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
New Era For Oil
Table : Global Assu mpt ions
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Gro wtH, %
Table : Emerg ing Mar kets , Real GDP Gro wth , %

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