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Spain Petrochemicals Report Q2 2015

Spain Petrochemicals Report Q2 2015

In 2012, the industrial production index for chemicals declined 0.7% on average, while for rubber andplastic products it plummeted an average of 9.0%, compared with growth of 0.2% and -1.5% respectively in2011. In the first four months of 2013, the chemicals production index fell by a further 7.3% while therubber and plastics index fell by 5.0%. This signalled a deterioration of chemical and petrochemicalsperformance in H113. Although there was an uptick in April, the operating environment has not changedradically to support a sustained recovery.

With the rest of the eurozone caught up in a pronounced slowdown, Spain's capacity to export its way out ofrecession has disappeared entirely. We estimated that GDP contracted 1.4% in 2012 and the recessionshould deepen in 2013, when growth should fall to -1.7%. Only a fiscal stimulus is likely to provide aturnaround to escape the debt-deflationary trap Spain is in, but this appears off the cards over the next year.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

La Seda Barcelona's (LSB) decision in June 2013to file for insolvency underlined the parlous state ofthe industry, with rising raw material costs combined with low demand and increased inventories. Thisputs in doubt LSB's plans to expand its PET plant at El Prat de Llobregat fFrom 220,000tpa to 265,000tpain 2013.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Table: Spain Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals - Historical Data & Forecasts
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Spain 2009-2018)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Spain Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Market Structure
Table: Spain's Polymer Capacity
Industry Trends And Developments
Upstream
Table: Refineries In Spain
Company Profile
Cia Española de Petróleos (Cepsa)
Repsol YPF
Table: Repsol - Financial Results (EURmn)
Regional Overview
Europe Overview
Trouble In The East
Declining Capacities
Global Industry Overview
Outlook for 2015: Falling prices
Medium-term outlook
China versus the US: feedstock wars
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Spain 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Spain 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Spain 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Spain 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Spain 1990-2025)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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