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Spain Agribusiness Report Q4 2017

BMI View: We have once again made minor forecast adjustments and updated our historical data with thelatest publication figures. Nevertheless, our core outlook remains unchanged in the latest Q4 2017 Spanishagribusiness update. The Spanish agricultural market continues to perform in line with our forecasts. Wehold the view that the dairy sector will be under modest pressure after the removal of the European dairyquota. The dairy production in the country will now have to compete directly with German and Frenchdairy farmers, historically known for far superior levels of efficiency and competitive. The dairy sub-sectoris now adapting to the end of the quota and this will most likely impose significant competitive pressures onproducers. The livestock sector will witness a modest upward trend in terms of production, driven by strongexport demand for pork. Sugar production will grow modestly in the five years owing to the removal of theEU sugar quota in H217, but we note that Spain will not be able to compete with the strength of the Frenchand German sugar producers.

Key Forecasts

Average annual wheat production growth 2016/17-2020/21: 5.3% to 7.1mn tonnes. Wheat willrecord the strongest growth in the grains complex as farmers will moderately substitute away from cornand barley due to the crop diversification required by the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)support scheme.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Dairy Outlook
Latest Updates
Table: Spain - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Structural Trends
Table: Dairy Production And Consumption (Spain 2014-2021)
Sugar Outlook
Table: Spain - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production And Consumption (Spain 2016-2021)
Livestock Outlook
Table: Spain - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Livestock Production And Consumption (Spain 2016-2021)
Grains Outlook
Table: Spain - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Wheat Production And Consumption (Spain 2016-2021)
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Commodities Strategy: Upside Risks From China
Table: BMI Commodities Views
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Europe GM Outlook
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Food Sales (Spain 2014-2021)
Regional Overview
Six Key Themes For Europe Agribusiness In 2017
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Spain 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Spain 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Spain 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Spain 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Spain 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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