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South Korea Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017

South Korea Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017

BMI View:

Despite stronger-than-expected economic performance during H117, we hold a cautious outlook for the country's consumer sectors. The volatile security situation in the Korean peninsula and tensions with China will weigh on consumer confidence and tourism-facing industries in the near term. On the domestic front, excessive youth unemployment and high levels of household indebtedness will remain major structural issues constraining household spending. That said, stable income growth and low inflation will support sustained albeit unimpressive increases in consumer spending in the medium term.

We forecast South Korea's modest private consumption real growth to remain unchanged in 2017, positing 2.5% expansion in y-o-y terms. This growth rate lags behind historical average of 3.3% during 2000-2016.

We note that high levels of household debt pose a significant downside risk to our consumer outlook should we see a sudden sharp rise in interest rates or rapid deleveraging forced upon the economy. Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that the country's household debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 92.8% at the end of 2016 or 4.7 percentage points higher than a year ago.


BMI Industry View
Consumer Outlook
SWOT
Consumer SWOT
Industry Forecast
Consumer Spending
Total Household Spending
Table: Total Household Spending (South Korea 2015-2021)
Essential And Non-Essential Spending
Table: Essential and Non-Essential Spending (South Korea 2015-2021)
Food, Drink And Tobacco
Table: Food, Drinks (Alcoholic And Non-Alcoholic) And Tobacco Spending (South Korea 2015-2021)
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending (South Korea 2015-2021)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (South Korea 2015-2021)
Personal Care And Effects
Table: Personal Care And Effects Spending (South Korea 2015-2021)
Tourism Spending
Household Characteristics
Table: Household Income Data (South Korea 2014-2021)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (South Korea 2014-2021)
Market Overview
Retail Trends
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Select Clothing And Footwear Retailers
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement
Table: Select Household Goods Retailers
Electronics
Table: Select Consumer Electronics Retailers
Department Stores
Table: Select Department Stores
E-Commerce And Online Marketplaces
Table: Select Online Marketplaces
Pharmacies And Drugstores
Table: Select Pharmacies And Drugstores
Glossary
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources

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