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South East Asia Mining Report 2015

South East Asia Mining Report 2015

BMI View: The cooling of the Chinese economy will remove the shine off mining investment in South EastAsia. Frontier regions will be the first places where miners pull back their investment as brownfieldprojects take precedence. Nonetheless, it is certainly not all gloomy in the mining sector. Resilient demandfrom the power sector will continue to support growth in coal production, while Indonesia's export ban onunprocessed ores will help support bauxite prices.

Despite the rich deposits of untapped minerals on offer, we believe South East Asia's mining sector willstruggle to uncover its potential over the coming years. The cooling of Chinese economic growth willremove a crucial pillar of support for mineral prices, particularly industrial metals such as iron ore andcopper. For instance, we forecast iron ore prices to average USD60/tonne in 2015, even though it seemslikely that prices will average below that in 2015. The outlook for gold mining is similarly precarious. Webelieve the bull run in gold prices is over and expect prices to average USD1,100/oz in 2015. Thisrepresents a 33% fall in prices compared with the average price of USD1,669/oz in 2012.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Mining: Potential To Remain In The Ground
Table: Cambodia - Select Minerals Production ('000 metric tonnes)
Laos: Tough Digging With Fading Boom
Table: Laos - Copper & Gold Mine Production Forecasts
Myanmar: Resource Boom To Remain Elusive
Table: Myanmar - Select Mining Projects
Table: Myanmar - Mining Production Forecasts
South Korea: Uranium Production On The Horizon
Thailand: Struggles Ahead, Except Coal
Table: Thailand - Mining Production Forecasts
Mining: Coal Most Resilient Amidst Fading Boom
Gold Miners To Benefit
Table: Table: Vietnam - Mining Production Forecasts
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Asia Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Laos Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Risks
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Myanmar Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Risks
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Table: Myanmar - Mining Production Forecasts
South Korea Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Risks
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Thailand Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Risks
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Table: Thailand - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
Vietnam Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Risks
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Table: Vietnam - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
Regulatory Development
Table: Asia - Mining Regulatory Scorecard
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices
Non-Ferrous Metals
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Select Mining Companies In South East Asia - Key Financial Data
Company Profile
Banpu Public Company Ltd
Table: Banpu - Key Financial Data
Lanna Resources Public Company
Table: Lanna Resources - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Continued Domination Of Iron Ore Production
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform
Table: Less Reliance On Coal
Indonesian Ban To Continue
Global Industry Overview
Global Overview
2. US Dollar Strength To Continue
3. Price Weakness To Spur Iron Ore Consolidation
4. Asian Powerhouses To Change Investment Patterns
5. The Outperformers Of 2015
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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