South Africa Tourism Report Q2 2016
BMI View: South Africa is home to the most developed tourism market in Sub-Saharan Africa, with thesupporting infrastructure to match. Air travel connections are extensive and the hotel market is modern andcompetitive, particularly in established tourism destinations such as Cape Town and Durban. The countrycontinues to attract a large volume of international visitors and some sectors, such as luxury safariholidays, are proving a valuable growth area. While we are currently forecasting healthy increases acrossall key market indicators over the next five years, we do note that stricter visa regulations and ongoingsecurity concerns have the potential to derail growth.
Key Updates And Forecasts
Zimbabwe remains South Africa's largest inbound source market, accounting for around one in fivearrivals. Connections to South Africa's northern neighbour continue to improve. In January 2016 budgetairline fastjet it would launch flights from Johannesburg to Harare and Victoria Falls from February2016, cutting a road journey time of 20 hours to a flight time of one and half hours.
The hotel and accommodation sector continues to attract investment, with a particular focus on the luxuryboutique hotel market. One of the new additions to the competitive landscape in 2016 is the LeeuCollection's luxury property Leeu Estates in Franschhoek. Global hotel group Marriott also has newhotels under development which will open during the forecast period.
We are currently forecasting relatively healthy growth in arrivals of 3.9% in 2016 to around 10.8mn, withfurther growth over the remainder of the forecast period leading to a total inbound arrivals figure of13.2mn in 2020. We caution, however, that new visa regulations which came into effect from June 2015could deter visitors from key affluent Western markets.
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