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South Africa Shipping Report Q1 2016

South Africa Shipping Report Q1 2016

BMI View: We expect positive growth across South Africa's ports in 2016. Many South African facilitieshad a poor 2014 in which volumes declined, but we estimate a return to growth in 2015 and expect that thiswill be cemented this year. That said, there are significant challenges to this outlook, stemming from theuncertain macroeconomic environment. The South African economy is being buffeted by external headwindsfrom the China slowdown and lower commodity prices, which is being exacerbated by domestic labourdisputes. Fundamentally, many of the ports require investment, and the port of Durban - the largestcontainer port in the country - has been silting up.

Headline Industry Data

Richards Bay Port tonnage throughput in 2015 is forecast to expand by 2.2% in 2016. Growth will be2.3% in 2017. Over the medium term to 2019 we project a 2.2% average annual increase.

Port of Durban container throughput is forecast to grow by 2.8% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017. Growth willaverage 3.3% per annum in the medium-term forecast period to 2019.

2016 total trade growth is forecast at 4.3% and in 2016, and will average 4.1% per annum to 2019.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Shipping
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Durban Throughput
Port Of Richards Bay Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2006-2013
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2006-2013
Market Overview
South Africa Container Shipping Market Overview
South Africa Company Profile
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL)
Safmarine
Shipping - Global Industry View
Bright Spot For Shipping: Low Bunker Prices
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel (IFO180 & MGO) Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Risks To Outlook
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)

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