South Africa Shipping Report Q1 2016
BMI View: We expect positive growth across South Africa's ports in 2016. Many South African facilitieshad a poor 2014 in which volumes declined, but we estimate a return to growth in 2015 and expect that thiswill be cemented this year. That said, there are significant challenges to this outlook, stemming from theuncertain macroeconomic environment. The South African economy is being buffeted by external headwindsfrom the China slowdown and lower commodity prices, which is being exacerbated by domestic labourdisputes. Fundamentally, many of the ports require investment, and the port of Durban - the largestcontainer port in the country - has been silting up.
Headline Industry Data
Richards Bay Port tonnage throughput in 2015 is forecast to expand by 2.2% in 2016. Growth will be2.3% in 2017. Over the medium term to 2019 we project a 2.2% average annual increase.
Port of Durban container throughput is forecast to grow by 2.8% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017. Growth willaverage 3.3% per annum in the medium-term forecast period to 2019.
2016 total trade growth is forecast at 4.3% and in 2016, and will average 4.1% per annum to 2019.
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