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South Africa Retail Report Q3 2015


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South Africa Retail Report Q3 2015

BMI View: Despite South Africa's unsatisfactory economic performance, there continues to remain anumber of reasons to be optimistic towards the country's retail sector. Gradual modernisation of thecountry's urban retail real estate has helped redefine South Africa's competitive landscape, with a number oflarge, international retail groups, such as Krispy Kreme, preparing to enter the market over our forecastperiod. Nonetheless, headwinds remain due to the country's unstable economic outlook combined with highunemployment, high household debt and increasing interest rates.

South Africa's economy has shown little sign of improvement during the first half of 2015. According tofigures released on May 26, annual GDP grew by a mere 1.3% in the first three months of this year, adramatic drop compared with the 4.1% achieved in the final quarter of 2014. As such, we expect the retailmarket to experience weaker consumer demand and falling levels of business confidence, which will deterinterest from potential retail investors. Further headwinds will stem from the country's endemic levels ofunemployment, which stands at 26.4% as well as the ongoing energy crisis which is generating regularblackouts.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Personal Care and Effects
Table: Personal Care Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (South Africa 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (South Africa 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Retail Risk/Reward Index
South Africa Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Mass Grocery Retail remains strong
Department Stores
Growing Attraction Of Luxury Brands
Increasing Growth Within E-Commerce
Competitive Landscape
Department Store Groups
Mass Grocery Retail (MGR)
Fashion
Consumer Electronics
Glossary
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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