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South Africa Retail Report Q1 2016

South Africa Retail Report Q1 2016

BMI View: Despite South Africa's ongoing economic and power supply problems, the retail sector remainsconfident and plans for the development of many more shopping malls shows no sign of abatement.Continued modernisation of the country's urban retail real estate sector is helping to attract internationalretail groups who are keen to cater to the country's expanding middle class. Following Krispy Kreme'slaunch in Johannesburg in Q415, US-based competitor Dunkin Donuts has also expressed an interest in themarket and coffee giant Starbucks aims to make its entry into the South African market in the first half of2016.

Although recession in South Africa is a possibility as we enter 2016, this is not our core view. The economyshrank by 1.3% during the second quarter; however, the economy has shown some sign of improvementduring the summer of 2015. This was illustrated by the fact that Power utility company, Eskom marked fiveweeks by mid-September without load shedding. A more stable power supply will be important in ensuringthe decline in growth does not continue in the short term and this will help elevate both consumer andbusiness confidence. Nonetheless- additional headwinds will linger from the country's endemic level ofunemployment, which stands at 24.2%.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Personal Care And Effects
Table: Personal Care Spending (South Africa 2012-2019)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (South Africa 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (South Africa 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (South Africa 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116
South Africa - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Mass Grocery Retail
Department Stores
Competitive Landscape
Department Store Groups
Mass Grocery Retail (MGR)
Consumer Electronics
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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