BMI View: Although repeated delays in signing of IPP contracts have resulted in us lowering our forecastsfor non-hydropower renewable electricity capacity additions in South Africa, we still expect that renewableswill be the growth outperformer in South Africa's power generation mix over our 10-year forecast period.While policy disconnect between Eskom and the government will deter some investors, the overall successof previous rounds of the REIPPPP will keep South Africa an attractive investment destination.
Forecast And Latest Updates
We have revised our forecasts for South Africa's non-hydropower renewable electricity generation. Whilewe previously expected that renewable capacity would have reached 9.8 GW by the end of our forecastperiod in 2026, we now expect it will grow to only 8.5GW. This is due to repeated delays in the signingof IPP contracts. IPP contracts under the fifth round in the Renewable Energy Independent PowerProducer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) have been awaiting final signatures from Eskom for nearlytwo years as of the time of writing.