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South Africa Power Report Q2 2016

South Africa Power Report Q2 2016

BMI View: South Africa's conventional power sources - thermal and nuclear in particular - will be hamstrung by operational delays and financial constraints. The majority of growth will come from nonhydropower renewables, forecast to grow at an annual average of 10% throughout our 10-year forecast period, boosted by a strong regulatory environment. The addition of the Ingula hydropower plant lowers the risk of load shedding during 2016.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

We have upgraded our forecasts for the South African power sector, increasing generation in 2016 to 250 terawatt hours (TWh), which we forecast will increase to 304TWh in 2025. The commissioning of new hydropower plants and the strong project pipeline underpins this forecast.

Unit three of the Ingula hydropower plant has been inaugurated into the South African power grid, adding a total of 333MW of capacity. Eskom has stated that this will alleviate pressure on the power grid and allow room for maintenance on other power plants. The complete hydropower plant, consisting of four 333MW units is forecast to be operational by the beginning of 2017.

Eskom has stated that the addition of the Ingula hydropower plant will greatly reduce the risk of load shedding during the winter months

The De Aar solar power plant has been commissioned in March and will be adding 175 megawatts (MW) of solar power capacity to the grid. The power plant is estimated to provide power to up to 75,000 homes

The Bokpoort Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) has been inaugurated, adding 50MW to the power grid. The Bokpoort CSP was constructed by Saudi Arabian firm, ACWA Power.

The South African trade and industry department has stated that the East London Industrial Development Zone (ELIDZ) currently has a growing pipeline of non-hydropower renewable energy investments totalling up to ZAR2.5bn (approximately USD162mn).


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (South Africa 2015-2021)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
South Africa Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
South Africa Power Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Thermal Generation and Thermal Generating Capacity
Nuclear Generation And Nuclear Generating Capacity
Table: South Africa: Nuclear Reactors
Hydropower Generation And Hydropower Generating Capacity
Renewables Generation And Renewables Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025)
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index
Table: SSA Power RRI (Scores Out Of 100)
South Africa Power Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Pricing
South Africa Power Projects Database
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
Eskom
Regional Overview
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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