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South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q3 2015

South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q3 2015

BMI View: Despite a prospective deepwater and unconventionals resource base, the outlook on the SouthAfrican upstream remains relatively poor. In the context of sustained lower oil prices, the high cost andtechnical complexity of prospective explorations will act as a major deterrent to investment. Coupled bycontinued uncertainty over the country's petroleum law, we see limited exploration activity in the comingyears. The downstream sector also faces significant headwinds, given poor operational efficiencies at thecountry's refineries and domestic fuel price subsidies dulling the appetite to invest.

The main trends and developments in South Africa's oil & gas sector are:

There has been significant concern surrounding the mineral and petroleum development amendment bill,which was passed by parliament in March 2014. The bill offers the state a 20% free carried stake in allnew developments, no limit on state ownership of assets and no clarity regarding the pricing terms forstake acquisition. Investors have voiced concern about potential resource nationalism and asset fire sales.

It is probable that this level of regulatory uncertainty will delay major investment decisions over the shortterm, posing long-term risk to the upstream oil and gas sector.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2019)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (South Africa 2019-2024)
Table: Major International Players In South Africa's Offshore
Upstream Projects
Table: South Africa Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2019-2024)
Upstream Production - Gas
Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2019-2024)
Refining
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (South Africa 2019-2024)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Africa 2019-2024)
Gas Consumption
Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2019-2024)
Trade - Oil
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2019-2024)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (South Africa 2019-2024)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2019-2024)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Underperformance Continues Among African Majors
Emergent Markets Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
Established Producers On The Downturn
An Underwhelming Downstream
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
South Africa - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
South Africa Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: South Africa Main Refineries
Oil Pipelines
Table: South Africa Main Oil Pipelines
Oil Trade Facilities
Table: South Africa Main Oil Trading Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Table: South Africa Main Gas Pipelines
Oil Storage Facilities
Table: Oil Storage Main Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players In South African Oil And Gas Sectors
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
PetroSA
Sasol
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
West Africa - Exploration Slowdown
Unconventionals: Window Of Opportunity Closing
East Africa: Resource Development Under Strain
High-Risk Continent
Downstream Blues
Global Industry Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
Appendix
Africa - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
South Africa - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (South Africa 2019-2024)
South Africa - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Africa 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Africa 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Africa 2019-2024)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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