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South Africa Metals Report 2015

South Africa Metals Report 2015

BMI View: South Africa's metals industry will face the continued prospect of subdued refined metalprices, elevated energy costs, and labour unrest, limiting the industry's investment and growth prospects.

Nevertheless, modest multi-year consumption growth for metals will be driven by the country's automotive,construction, and infrastructure sectors.

Following subdued economic growth in 2014, we forecast stronger metals demand fundamentals in 2015.Lower oil prices will benefit private consumption and investment, leading to our upward revision for SouthAfrican real GDP growth from 2.1% to 2.5%. While automotive production is likely to remain weak in2015 following significant production declines in 2014, we forecast stronger industry fundamentals in2016-2019, supporting demand for steel, aluminium, and nickel. More broadly, we forecast average realGDP growth of 2.7% in 2015-2019, with the construction and infrastructure industries seeing averageannual growth of 3.9% and 4.0%, respectively over the same period.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Industry Headwinds To Persist
Production To See Continued Headwinds
Table: South Africa - Major Steel Plants
Consumption Growth To Outpace Production
Mixed Export Outlook
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (South Africa 2011-2019)
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (South Africa 2006-2013)
Aluminium: Subdued Outlook All Around
Construction & Infrastructure To Support Consumption
Production To See Continued Headwinds
Upstream Constraints May Pose Challenge
Exports & Imports To Remain Weak
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (South Africa 2011-2019)
Nickel: Upstream Constraints Lead To Downstream Slowdown
Refined Production Hampered By Upstream Difficulties
Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (South Africa 2011-2019)
Regulatory Development
Carbon Tax Set For 2016
Regional Outperformer, But Risks Remain
Tax Regime
Table: South Africa - Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Non-Ferrous Metals
Aluminium: Abating Tightness To Cap Prices
Copper: Continued Weakness Ahead
Lead: Prices To Firm As Year Progresses
Nickel: Prices Will Only Rise Gradually
Tin: Waiting On A Deficit
Zinc: Modest Price Growth On Tighter Supply But Looser Demand
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Commodities Forecast
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Production Growth Set For Slowdown
Consumption Growth To Disappoint
Downside Risks To Price Outlook
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: South Africa - Major Steel Production Facilities
Table: South Africa - Select Listed Metals Producers
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - ArcelorMittal - Q2 2015
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Methodology
Cross Checks

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