South Africa Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q2 2016
BMI View: We envisage healthy growth across the South African freight modes in 2016, despite challenging external and domestic headwinds over the course of the next 12 months, in particular the eurozone crisis and the economic slowdown in China. We expect that growth in rail freight volumes will accelerate in 2016, thanks to a somewhat brighter outlook for the coal mining sector, while road freight will outperform across the modes. Latest Updates And Forecasts
Road freight is set to be the outperforming freight mode in 2016, with tonnage growth coming in at 4.6% y-o-y.
There has been increasing labour unrest in South Africa over the past several years and since the 2012 Marikana massacre, in particular. We believe this could affect volumes exported through South African ports and thus potentially have quite a detrimental impact on volumes handled at the country's main facilities.
2016 total trade real growth is forecast at 4.3%, while in nominal terms, growth will contract by 5.4% to USD195.6bn.
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