Slovenia Insurance Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Our outlook for Slovenia's insurance market is broadly positive. Although comparatively small,the life insurance sector is expected to record steady premium growth during the forecast period, bolsteredby supportive demographic trends as well as rising average household income rates. The larger non-lifeinsurance market is expected to see slower growth, led by the dominant lines (motor, health and propertyinsurance). The market is highly consolidated, and moving forward we could see more multinationalsentering the Slovenian insurance sector, challenging the incumbent domestic providers. However, presentgrowth rates are not likely to increase sufficiently rapidly to entice major investment.
Key Updates And Forecasts
We are currently forecasting steady economic growth in Slovenia, with GDP growth expected to remainover 2% annually over the medium term. We do note, however, that the ongoing migrant crisis couldimpact this outlook, both due to associated costs and due to a deterioration in regional relations. Shouldeconomic growth slow, we would revisit a range of forecasts, including those for the insurance sector.
Our forecasts for the Slovenian non-life sector see premiums growing by an annual average of 3.7%, inlocal currency terms between 2016 and 2020. In US dollar terms, growth is more varied due to ongoingcurrency fluctuations. Overall, we expect non-life premiums to increase from USD1.6bn in 2016 toUSD2.1bn in 2020.
The life insurance market is considerably smaller, writing premiums of just under USD600mn in 2016.
We do expect to see stronger annual growth over the course of the forecast period, however, at 6.8%, asthe life sector continues to challenge conventional savings products. As a result, premiums are forecast toreach USD888mn in 2020.
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