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Slovenia Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Slovenia Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Slovenia's five-party minority coalition government continues to enjoy a healthy level of public support but will face further tests to unity as it attempts to tackle sensitive healthcare and welfare reforms.

After peaking at 4.8% in 2017, we expect GDP growth to slow to 3.0% in 2019 and 2.8% in 2020 amid rising headwinds to export growth. Growth should stabilise at around 2.5% over the medium term.

The centre-left government is likely to face growing pressure to adopt a more expansive fiscal stance as growth slows, though we expect fiscally conservative coalition partners to maintain budgetary discipline.

The current account will remain in surplus over the forecast period, supported by a buoyant tourism sector and strong export-facing manufacturing industry.

Major Forecast Changes


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Regional Slowdown Weighing On Slovenia's Growth Outlook
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORTS & EXPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Softening Growth And Weak Inflation Suggest Monetary Stimulus Is Forthcoming In The Eurozone
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT REVENUE/SPENDING SOURCES
Currency Forecast
EUR: Fed's Dovish Tilt Supporting Positive Short-Term Bias
TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Slovenia Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Slovenian Economy To 2028
Growth Rate To Cool And Slow Convergence
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Fresh Challenges For Minority Coalition Government In Slovenia
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Ageing Population A Key Long-Term Policy Challenge
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Labour Costs
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
Legal Environment
TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
Global Macro Outlook
Potential Policy Missteps Pose The Largest Risk To Global Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SLOVENIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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