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Slovenia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Slovenia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Key View:

The newly-formed five-party coalition government will face many challenges to policy making, particularly as reforms will require the support of the more radical leftist party in parliament.

Preliminary data support our view that the pace of growth will ease in 2018 and 2019, as regional headwinds and capacity constraints weigh on activity. None-theless, we expect growth to remain broad-based and robust, with the economy in a relatively healthy condition.

Major Forecast Changes

We have adjusted our forecast for the general government budget balance in 2019, projecting a surplus of 0.5% rather than 0.7% due to plans for higher spend-ing from the incoming government coalition.

Key Risks

The elevated risk of disputes within the five-party coalition, and with the leftist party it is reliant on for parliamentary votes to approve key reforms, will keep the possibility of another snap election open for the foreseeable future.

Mounting threats to global trade could impact on Slovenia's export-facing industrial sector, particularly if US tariffs affect demand from key EU trading partners such as Germany.

A maritime border dispute with Croatia could worsen if both sides are unable to reach an agreement, especially if Slovenia unilaterally asserts control over the contested waters based on an international tribunal ruling that Zagreb does not recognise.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Slovenian Economy In Good Shape Despite Gradual Slowdown
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Eurozone Inflation Will Struggle To Stay At 2.0% ECB Target
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT REVENUE/SPENDING SOURCES
Currency Forecast
EUR: Gradual Appreciation Amid End Of QE
TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Slovenia Country Risk Q4 2018Contents10-Year Forecast
The Slovenian Economy To 2027
Convergence Will Continue But At A Slower Pace
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Slovenian Minority Coalition Government Prone To Instability
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Structural Reforms A Long-Term Pressure Point
Global Macro Outlook
Strong Growth, But Greater Headwinds Too
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SLOVENIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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