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Slovenia Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Slovenia Country Risk Report Q3 2018

There are increased downside risks to political stability following the June election, in which no party was able to establish a clear majority. A difficult period of negotiations will follow, with any coali-tion agreement likely to be problematic due to the diverse policy programmes of the parties involved.

We are broadly positive about the country's short-term economic outlook, after an impressive estimated growth of 5.0% in 2017. However, we expect growth to ease over the coming years, in line with regional trends and emerging capacity constraints.

Accelerating import growth will eat into the trade and current account balance over the coming years, although a robust export base and an expanding tourism sector should ensure an ongoing surplus.

A rebound in oil prices will drive up inflation, although we expect price pressure to remain relatively moderate in the near future.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Cool But Remain Robust
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
ECB Normalisation Finally Nearing
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT REVENUE/SPENDING SOURCES
Currency Forecast
EUR: Near-Term Strength To Give Way Gradually
TABLE: BMI EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Slovenian Economy To 2027
Convergence Will Continue But At A Slower Pace
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Fragmented Parliament A Concern For Political Stability
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Structural Reforms A Long-Term Pressure Point
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR AND ORGANISED CRIME
Education
TABLE: SLOVENIA AND OECD AVERAGE – STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES (2015)
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: SLOVENIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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