Slovenia Country Risk Report Q3 2018
There are increased downside risks to political stability following the June election, in which no party was able to establish a clear majority. A difficult period of negotiations will follow, with any coali-tion agreement likely to be problematic due to the diverse policy programmes of the parties involved.
We are broadly positive about the country's short-term economic outlook, after an impressive estimated growth of 5.0% in 2017. However, we expect growth to ease over the coming years, in line with regional trends and emerging capacity constraints.
Accelerating import growth will eat into the trade and current account balance over the coming years, although a robust export base and an expanding tourism sector should ensure an ongoing surplus.
A rebound in oil prices will drive up inflation, although we expect price pressure to remain relatively moderate in the near future.
Executive Summary Core Views Major Forecast Changes Key Risks Chapter 1: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Index Economic Growth Outlook Growth To Cool But Remain Robust GDP By Expenditure Outlook TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS Outlook On External Position TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS Monetary Policy Framework ECB Normalisation Finally Nearing Structural Fiscal Position TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS TABLE: GOVERNMENT REVENUE/SPENDING SOURCES Currency Forecast EUR: Near-Term Strength To Give Way Gradually TABLE: BMI EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast The Slovenian Economy To 2027Convergence Will Continue But At A Slower Pace TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS Chapter 3: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Index Domestic PoliticsFragmented Parliament A Concern For Political Stability TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW Long-Term Political Outlook Structural Reforms A Long-Term Pressure Point Chapter 4: Operational Risk Operational Risk TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK Business Crime TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR AND ORGANISED CRIME Education TABLE: SLOVENIA AND OECD AVERAGE – STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES (2015) Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: SLOVENIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS