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Slovenia Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Slovenia Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Key View:

The unity of Slovenia's five-party minority coalition government will be tested in the coming quarters as it attempts to push ahead with key reforms to the budget, taxes, pensions and the public health system.

We expect GDP growth to continue to slow after peaking in 2017, though ongoing momentum in domestic demand will partially offset weaker exports. The broad-based expansion will support stability going forward.

Slower export growth will weigh on the country's trade surplus, though robust growth in tourism will support a sizable current account surplus over the forecast period.Major Forecast Changes

We have adjusted our forecast for GDP in 2019 to 3.3%, from a previous 3.5%, following similar downward revisions to Slovenia's key trading partners in the EU.

Key Risks

The potential for disputes within the five-party coalition will keep the possibility of another snap election open, though this risk will increase later in the govern-ment's term as there is currently limited appetite for a new vote.

A sharper than expected regional slowdown, particularly in key export markets such as Germany and Italy, would pose a downside threat to our growth forecasts. Slovenia Country Risk


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Slower Growth But Slovenian Economy To Remain Healthy
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORTS & EXPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Neutral Fed To Underpin Euro Strength And ECB Rate Hike Delay
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT REVENUE/SPENDING SOURCES
Currency Forecast
EUR: Gradual Strengthening Lies Ahead In 2019
TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Slovenia Country Risk Q2 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Slovenian Economy To 2028
Convergence Will Continue But At A Slower Pace
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Downside Risk Scenario: Could The Eurozone Enter Recession In 2019 Or 2020?
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Slovenia's Minority Coalition Government Remains Inherently Unstable
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Slovenia Long-Term Political Outlook
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Conflict Risk
TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS IN SLOVENIA
TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
TABLE: MAJOR CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
Transport Network
TABLE: ROAD RISKS
TABLE: RAIL RISKS
TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Damage Control: Looser Policy Shift Ahead
TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SLOVENIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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