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Sierra Leone & Liberia Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Sierra Leone & Liberia Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Core Views

We have revised our 2016 real GDP forecast to 2.0% in 2016 from4.2%. This follows our revised estimate for 2015 of 0.2%, from anearlier 1.2%.

The outbreak of Ebola will significantly weigh on growth, pushingback investment plans and reducing exports.

Political stability continues to improve as the country recovers fromits civil war, although the drawdown of UN forces and the Ebolaoutbreak will test the authorities’ capabilities.

Core Views Sierra Leone’s economy will grow by 5.0% and 5.1% in 2016 and 2017, respectively, following a contraction of 19.9% in 2015. The outbreak of Ebola will significantly weigh on growth, pushing back investment plans and reducing exports. The country is enjoying increasing levels of political and social stability, continuing its recovery from its ruinous civil war, although the Ebola outbreak has increased risk of social and political unrest. Violent crime has risen in recent months.


Executive Summary – Liberia
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook – Liberia
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
Political Uncertainty To Rise
Ahead Of 2017 Elections
Political uncertainty in Liberia will increase in the next two years ahead of the 2017 presidential and general elections as campaigning
gets underway. Allegations of corruption and political violence coupled with economic malaise will further dent political stability.
TABLE: LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS RESULTS, OCTOBER 2011
Long-Term Political Outlook
Putting The War Behind It
Liberia will continue on its road towards becoming a stable democracy over the coming decade, steadily recovering from its horrific civil war.
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook – Liberia
SWOT Analysis
Economic Growth Outlook
Falling Iron Ore Production To Weigh On Growth
Liberia’s economy is poised for lacklustre growth in the coming years owing to weak iron ore production.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast – Liberia
The Liberian Economy To 2024
Infrastructure Deficit To Curtail Growth Surge
Our previously bullish long-term outlook for Liberia has been knocked off course by the Ebola outbreak. Although growth will still be
robust, it will be slower than anticipated. There also remain significant infrastructure challenges.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Executive Summary – Sierra Leone
Core Views
Key Risk
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook – Sierra Leone
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
IMF Loan Will Lend
Support To Political Stability
An increase in IMF funds will provide Sierra Leone much needed resources to implement its post-Ebola Recovery Strategy as well as
enable the country to avoid fiscal meltdown in 2016.
Long-Term Political Outlook
Stability Will Continue Despite
Ebola Upheaval
Sierra Leone will enjoy increasing political and social stability over the
coming decade as it continues to recover from its civil war. Nevertheless, poverty and economic inequality will remain key challenges,
and the Ebola outbreak threatens to set back recent gains.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook – Sierra Leone
SWOT Analysis
Economic Growth Outlook
Base Effect Will Underpin 2016 Economic Recovery
Sierra Leone’s economy will bounce back into growth over the next two years, as the country begins to recover from the impact of the
Ebola outbreak and the global commodity price rout.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast – Sierra Leone
The Sierra Leonean Economy To 2024
Global Commodity Price Rout Hinders Investment Outlook
Our long-term growth forecasts for Sierra Leone have been revised down as a result of the Ebola crisis. Delayed investment into
important growth industries such as iron ore mining will weigh on future economic activity.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Global Outlook
Emerging Markets Bending, Not Breaking
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %

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