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Serbia Retail Report Q3 2015


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

BMI View: Compared with the other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Serbia has a relatively pooreconomic growth outlook. A large budget deficit and increasing public debt made the government respondwith austerity measures, which will inevitably delay a faster expansion of the Serbian economy. Despitethat, retailers continue to invest and expect to capitalise on the country's potential in the medium term.

Poor public finances paired with underdeveloped financial and legal systems are taking a toll on the Serbianeconomy. Real GDP contracted by 2.0% in 2014 as a result of high unemployment and weak economicactivity of the country's main trade partners. The decline is set to prolong into this year with a projectedcontraction of 0.7%. Unlike in the recent decade when the economy was falling and rebounding because ofpopulist decisions and fast accumulation of public debt, this year the slowdown will be a direct outcome ofstructural reforms. In February 2015, Serbia reached a stand-by agreement with the International MonetaryFund (IMF), which will allow the country the access to EUR1.2bn of emergency funds over a three-yearperiod. In return, the Serbian government agreed to balance public finances, increase the stability of thecountry's financial system and implement structural reforms necessary for reducing unemployment andpromoting employment growth. As a result, a more sustained economic expansion can be anticipated in themedium term, with a 3.3% rate of real GDP growth projected for 2017.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Retail SWOT
Political
Economic
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food & Drink
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Serbia, 2012-2019)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (Serbia 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Serbia 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Retail Risk/Reward Index
Serbia Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Glossary
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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