Serbia Freight Transport Report 2016
BMI View: BMI believes the outlook for Serbia's freight sector is relatively rosy over both 2016 and ourmedium-term forecast period to 2019. Average annual growth rates to 2019 for road and air freight willsurpass 2016 figures, whereas for rail it will remain around the same. While not bullish in our forecasts, wesee improving export growth, huge investments in rail infrastructure - the country's dominant freight mode -and macroeconomic growth that will boost Serbian consumers as providing a stable foundation for growththat will pay dividends to 2019 and beyond.
Trade growth in 2016 will continue to rise and improve upon 2015 growth rates, although we note that 2016will represent a peak in the medium term and growth will dip from 9.0% growth this coming year to anannual average of 6%. Increased export growth will be a key driver of growth in the short-term, whilebackbone growth in the economy in real GDP (1.0% in 2016 but rising to 4.3% in 2019), GDP per capita inlocal currency terms (rising by an average of 7.4% between 2016 and 2019) and real private finalconsumption growth (rising to 3.5% in 2018 and 2019) will boost stability over the medium term and helpto expand all freight sector modes.
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