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Serbia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Serbia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Growth in Serbia will accelerate in the years ahead, supported by strong private consumption, a more expansionary fiscal stance and accelerating fixed invest-ment. A more marked pickup in growth will be prevented as headwinds arise from a cooling of external demand.

The budget deficit will widen in Serbia over the coming years as the government pursues several expansionary fiscal policies. Low borrowing costs will see the public debt ratio continue to fall.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Serbian Growth Set To Gather Pace
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP 5 EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Dovish Bias In Serbia To End In 2019
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Serbian Government Shifting To A More Expansionary Fiscal Stance
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES FOR 2017
Currency Forecast
RSD: Appreciation To Continue For Remainder Of 2018
TABLE: SERBIA CURRENCY FORECASTS
Serbia Country Risk Q4 2018Contents10-Year Forecast
The Serbian Economy To 2027
EU Convergence Key
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Serbia To Remain Stuck Between Russia And West
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Several Challenges Over Coming Decade
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SERBIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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