Serbia Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Serbia Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Growth in Serbia will accelerate in the years ahead, supported by strong private consumption, a more expansionary fiscal stance and accelerating fixed invest-ment. A more marked pickup in growth will be prevented as headwinds arise from a cooling of external demand.

The government is likely to pursue a more expansionary fiscal policy in the coming years, but we do not expect to see a significant increase in the budget deficit. Low borrowing costs will see the public debt ratio continue to fall.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
More Expansionary Fiscal And Monetary Policies To Boost Serbian Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Strong Growth Rates In Serbia To Support Strong Foreign Direct Investment Inflows
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 2018
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2018
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Further Monetary Stimulus Likely To Come In Serbia
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES FOR 2017
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Serbia Country Risk Q1 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
The Serbian Economy To 2028
EU Convergence Key
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Serbian Talks With Kosovo Likely To Resume, But Deal Remains Unlikely
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Unresolved Regional Tensions To Weigh On Serbia's EU Accession
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SERBIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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