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Serbia Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Serbia Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Growth in Serbia will accelerate in the years ahead, supported by strong private consumption, a more expansionary fiscal stance and accelerating fixed invest-ment A more marked pickup in growth will be prevented as headwinds arise from a cooling of external demand

The budget deficit will widen in Serbia over the coming years as the government pursues several expansionary fiscal policies Low borrowing costs will see the public debt ratio continue to fall


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Serbian Household Consumption And Investment To Support Strong Growth In 2019
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Strong Serbian Growth Postpones End Of Rebalancing
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Loose Monetary Conditions In Serbia To Persist
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES FOR 2017
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Serbian Economy To 2027
EU Convergence Key
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Serbia Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
New Borders Will Not Lead To Serbian Normalisation With Kosovo
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Unresolved Regional Tensions Remain Despite Agreement With Kosovo
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Openness Analysis
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Contagion Risks Limited To EMs For Now
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SERBIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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