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Serbia Country Risk Report 20 2018

Serbia Country Risk Report 20 2018

Growth in Serbia will accelerate in the years ahead, supported by strong private consumption, a more-expansionary fiscal stance and accelerating fixed investment. A more-marked pickup in growth will be prevented as headwinds arise from a cooling of external demand.

The budget deficit will widen in Serbia over the coming years as the government pursues several expansionary fiscal policies. Low borrowing costs will see the public debt ratio continue to fall.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth Set To Recover
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
External Rebalancing To Slow
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP 5 EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
NBS Not Done With Dovish Stance
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Shift To Fiscal Expansion Ahead
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES FOR 2017
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
RSD: Further Strength Ahead
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Serbian Economy To 2027
EU Convergence Key
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
EU-Accession Hopes Rest On Kosovo Agreement
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Unresolved Regional Tensions Remain Despite Agreement With Kosovo
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME RISKS
Education
TABLE: SERBIA AND OECD AVERAGE PISA STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: SERBIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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