Serbia Country Risk Report 20 2018
Growth in Serbia will accelerate in the years ahead, supported by strong private consumption, a more-expansionary fiscal stance and accelerating fixed investment. A more-marked pickup in growth will be prevented as headwinds arise from a cooling of external demand.
The budget deficit will widen in Serbia over the coming years as the government pursues several expansionary fiscal policies. Low borrowing costs will see the public debt ratio continue to fall.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Major Forecast Changes
- Key Risks
- Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Economic Risk Index
- Economic Growth Outlook
- Growth Set To Recover
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
- TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
- TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
- External Trade And Investment Outlook
- External Rebalancing To Slow
- Outlook On External Position
- TABLE: TOP 5 EXPORTS IN 2017
- TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORTS IN 2017
- TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
- Monetary Policy
- NBS Not Done With Dovish Stance
- Monetary Policy Framework
- TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
- Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
- Shift To Fiscal Expansion Ahead
- Structural Fiscal Position
- TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES FOR 2017
- TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
- Currency Forecast
- RSD: Further Strength Ahead
- TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
- Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
- The Serbian Economy To 2027
- EU Convergence Key
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Chapter 3: Political Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Political Risk Index
- Domestic Politics
- EU-Accession Hopes Rest On Kosovo Agreement
- TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Unresolved Regional Tensions Remain Despite Agreement With Kosovo
- Chapter 4: Operational Risk
- Operational Risk
- TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
- Business Crime
- TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME RISKS
- Education
- TABLE: SERBIA AND OECD AVERAGE PISA STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES
- Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
- Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
- TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: SERBIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
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