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Senegal & Gambia Country Risk Reports Q2 2015

Senegal & Gambia Country Risk Reports Q2 2015

Core Views

Real GDP growth will be 4.7% in 2015 and 2016, and will remain at a similar level over the coming years.

Senegal's current account deficit will widen from 10.4% of GDP in 2015 to 11.5% in 2016 as capital goods imports are ramped up.

The country will remain a bastion of West African stability and will continue to develop its democratic institutions.

Inflationary pressures will be benign, in part thanks to the XOF Franc's peg to the euro.

Core Views

Real GDP growth will be 1.9% in 2015, a downwards revision from last quarter's forecast 3.7%, due to the Ebola outbreak's effect on the tourism sector.

President Yahya Jammeh is likely to remain in power, barring death or illness or removal by military coup.

Agriculture will remain the dominant sector in The Gambia, though investment into other industries such as tourism will help drive real GDP growth.

The country will remain reliant on foreign grants in order to meet its fiscal obligations, although these are under threat given political developments.

Executive Summary – Senegal
Core Views
Key Risk To Outlook
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook – Senegal
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
President Sall's Corruption Fight Will Ensure Foreign Investment
Senegalese President Macky Sall is making officials declare their assets, in the latest move by the reforming president to combat
corruption. Perceptions of corruption are improving in the country, and this will help ensure a continued inflow of essential foreign
Long-Term Political Outlook
Bastion Of Regional Stability To Flourish Politically
Senegal will continue to develop politically over the next decade, cementing its reputation as one of the most stable democracies in
Africa. There are challenges to this stability, not least from poverty and unemployment, but we believe that accelerating economic
development will help Senegal overcome these.
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook – Senegal
SWOT Analysis
Economic Activity
Private Consumption And Investment Will Drive Real GDP Growth
Senegal will enjoy real GDP growth of 4.7% in 2015 and 2016, the fastest level in eight years. Private consumption, infrastructure
investment and new industries will drive this.
TABLE: Economic Acti vit y
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast – Senegal
The Senegalese Economy To 2024
Growth To Outpace Previous Decade
Senegal will enjoy strong real GDP growth over the next decade, averaging 4.6% annually, an improvement on the 3.8% recorded over
the previous 10 years. Growth will be driven by private consumption, though the country's poor infrastructure will impede development.
TABLE: Long-Term Mac roec onomic Forecasts
Executive Summary – The Gambia
Core Views
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook – The Gambia
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
Political Clampdown In Wake Of Failed Coup
President Jammeh will use a failed coup in The Gambia to secure his position in the short term. However, with the economy ailing
opposition to the autocratic ruler will become more vocal.
Long-Term Political Outlook
President Jammeh To Shape Next Decade
The Gambia's political landscape will continue to be shaped by President Yahya Jammeh over the next decade, as political and press
freedoms will continue to be reduced. A change in government will only come about through either a military coup or revolution.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook – The Gambia
SWOT Analysis
Economic Activity
Ebola Crisis Will Weigh On Macroeconomic Stability
The Gambian economy is looking increasingly fragile as the effects of the Ebola crisis continue to weigh on activity. Macroeconomic
stability is being challenged, just as political developments make international cooperation increasingly unlikely.
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast – The Gambia
Robust Growth Outlook Susceptible To External Shocks
Real GDP growth in Gambia will be robust over the coming 10 years, hovering around 5.0 % per annum. This will be driven by
agriculture and tourism, though growth will be constrained by poor infrastructure. As a small, open economy, the country is also
susceptible to external shocks, whether from weather events or global economic headwinds.
TABLE: Long-Term Mac roec onomic Forecasts
Chapter 3: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
New Era For Oil
Table : Global Assumptions
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP GrowtH, %
Table : Eme rgi ng Markets , Real GDP Growth , %

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