The Gambia's economic recovery is underway and growth will accelerateduring the final months of 2017 and into 2018. However,the pace of the recovery will be constrained by a need for the newgovernment to address the misdeeds of the past, which will absorbgovernment time and resources while political uncertainty will keepforeign investors cautious.
While a significant proportion of the Gambian military remains loyalto former President Yayha Jammeh, an unconstitutional transfer ofpower is fairly unlikely given the ongoing ECOWAS presence in thecountry. That said, protests are fairly likely to occur in the comingquarters, as the administration of President Adama Barrow strugglesto keep both its supporters and those of Jammeh happy in itsattempts to address past wrongdoings.
Agriculture will remain the dominant sector in The Gambia, thoughinvestment into other industries, such as tourism, will help drive realGDP growth.
Core Views Private sector investment will increasingly drive economic growth in Senegal as the government pares back spending in a bid to ease the country's debt burden. Private investors will be attracted by political stability and an improving business environment. The victory of President Macky Sall's governing alliance in July's parliamentary election is a boon for the continuation of the president's reform policies, which will underpin strong economic growth over the coming years. The result also suggests that President Sall is highly likely to secure a second presidential term in 2019. While more stable than most other Sub-Saharan African states, Senegal is a high-risk target for attack by Islamist terrorists, and any major incident would jeopardise growth in the country's tourism sector. Sall will continue to focus efforts on combating the threat of terrorism over the coming years, recognising the salient danger the issue presents to the economy. Inflationary pressures will be benign, in part thanks to the West African Franc (XOF)'s peg to the euro.