Saudi Arabia Retail Report Q2 2016

Saudi Arabia Retail Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Saudi Arabia contains strong fundamentals for sustained growth in the retail sector over themedium-term, but the recent slump in oil prices will weigh on the economic growth and governmentspending in 2016. This has prompted a downward revision to our 2016 household expenditure growth in theretail sector from 8.1% to 7.8%.

Key Views & Developments

Our Country Risks team has recently revised down Saudi Arabia's growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017reflecting the economically disruptive nature of the government's 2016 budget and the further collapse inglobal energy prices. The economic headwinds are expected to have a negative effect on the retail sector,as illustrated by point-of-sale transactions, which growth has slowed from the high of 42.5% in February2015 to just 6.5% at the end of 2015.

Numerous government subsidy cuts on fuel, water, electricity, ethane and gas will raise consumer priceinflation levels from 2.2% in 2015 to 3.5% in 2016 and 4.0% in 2017. Regional plans to introduce valueaddedtax from 2018 onwards pose a further risk to our forecast. This could negatively affect householdspending, especially in the non-essentials category.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Personal Care
Table: Personal Care Spending (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Labour Market Data (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Babies (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Children (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Children (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young People (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Urban (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East And North Africa Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q216
Saudi Arabia Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Table: Major Clothing And Footwear Retailers
Table: Major Household Goods Retailers
Table: Major Electronics Retailers
Table: Major Department Stores Retailers
Table: Major E-Commerce Retailers
Table: Major Pharmacies Retailers
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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