Saudi Arabia Infrastructure Report Q1 2016
BMI View: Saudi Arabia's infrastructure and construction sectors will offer scale and growth opportunitiesover our 10-year forecast period to 2024, although we note the impact on the private sector of lower oilprices. We expect government investment in affordable housing and infrastructure to remain robust,although note the government will begin moves to lessen the pressure being placed on the country'ssubstantial fiscal buffers.
The drop in oil prices will drag on growth in the residential and non-residential sector, which has had aknock-on effect on our construction industry forecasts for 2016. We now see real growth in theconstruction sector of 6.5% y-o-y.
We expect a rationalisation of fiscal expenditure over the long-term, which will see growth in theconstruction sector begin to slow. We do not expect the cancellation of any major projects, rather, somesecondary projects or those being developed over a long timeframe will be delayed. The push back on thedate for nuclear power is a prime example.
With many of the major projects under development being awarded over the past four years - the majorityof which will be completed by 2018, the latter half of our 10-year forecast period will see the residentialand non-residential sector overtake infrastructure as the main driver of growth.
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