Saudi Arabia Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q3 2017
BMI View: Saudi Arabia's economy will continue to face headwinds in 2017 as global oil prices remaindepressed. The country will post another year of recession, with GDP forecast to contract by 0.2% in 2017as due to oil production cuts, weak demand for hydrocarbons and strong government spending.
Nevertheless, we hold the view that the government's efforts to reduce reliance on the hydrocarbons tradeby will keep construction and infrastructure spending levels elevated. We forecast air freight and roadfreight to be impeded in 2017, but we forecast strong growth in rail freight over the course of the year. Outto 2021, we expect stable growth in all freight modes to return as the economy and domestic demandcontinue to regain momentum.
Key Updates And Forecasts
Total trade in real terms is set to decrease by 0.8% y-o-y in 2017, with imports growing by 0.5% andexports contracting by 2.0%.
In nominal terms, total trade growth will come in at 21.1% in 2017, following a contraction of 17.5% in2016. This would see trade rise to USD471.5bn in 2017.