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Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

The Saudi economy will emerge from recession in 2018, and see growth further accelerate in 2019. An expected ramp-up in oil production over the quarters ahead, following the June OPEC meeting, underpins this view, in combination with fiscal expansion.

Faster-than-expected gains in oil prices will also support the reduction of budget deficits over the next two years. Rising spending will temper these improve-ments and we do not expect the kingdom's fiscal accounts to return to surplus before 2024.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook I
Oil Production Ramp-Up To Boost Saudi Economic Growth
Economic Growth Outlook II
Saudi Aramco's International IPO Under Threat
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2016
Monetary Policy
VAT And Subsidy Cuts To Drive Moderate Uptick In Saudi Inflation
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Saudi Arabia Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsFiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Saudi Budget Deficit To Narrow On Oil Price Gains
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Saudi Economy To 2027
Economic Diversification Delayed By Political Risk
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: SAUDI ARABIA VISION 2030
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Assessing The Risks Of US-Saudi Tensions Over Oil
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Political Risk On The Rise
TABLE: NTP OBJECTIVES AND POLITICAL RISK
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SAUDI ARABIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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