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Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Improving oil sector dynamics will fuel an acceleration in Saudi real GDP growth over 2018-2019, while also helping to boost the kingdom's fiscal and external positions

Non-oil activity is likely to pick up as a result of these overarching trends, although we note that investor perceptions of heightened political risk could weigh on the pace of growth in this segment to some extent


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Saudi Real GDP Growth To Accelerate On Oil Sector Gains
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Rising Oil Exports To Boost Saudi Arabia's External Position
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2016
Monetary Policy
Saudi Inflation To Moderate In 2019
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Oil Revenue Gains To Encourage Higher Spending By Saudi Government
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Saudi Arabia Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Saudi Economy To 2027
Economic Diversification Delayed By Political Risk
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: SAUDI ARABIA VISION 2030
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Khashoggi Incident Q&A: Assessing Risks And Implications
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Political Challenges Ahead
TABLE: NTP OBJECTIVES AND POLITICAL RISK
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Costs And Availability
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Inflation And Policy Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
Index Tables
TABLE: SAUDI ARABIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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