BMI View: The mobile market grew slower than we had anticipated in 2016, mainly on account ofsaturation in operators' core urban markets. With mobile penetration yet to reach 60%, we believe there isstill room for operators to expand organically, but that will entail expanding networks beyond core urbanmarkets where returns on network investments will be limited as a result of low customer expenditurepower. In the mobile data market, government subsidies combined with increasing access to low-costhandsets continue to drive 3G/4G subscriptions. As operators such as MTN and players such as KoreaTelecom Rwanda Networks continue to expand their advanced mobile data networks, we believe 3G/4Gaccess will be a key growth driver for the overall mobile market. In the fixed voice market, we expect thecombination of mobile substitution as well as CDMA and inactive fixed voice disconnection to continuedecreasing fixed voice access. Meanwhile, penetration remains low in the broadband market but we believenetwork investments by Liquid Telecom, Bharat Telecom and Yahsat in conjunction with the government'snational broadband plan will pose upside risk to subscriber growth. Lastly, although Star Africa Mediacontinues to dominate the pay-TV market, we expect the entrance of Econet-owned Kwese to shake up themarket, particularly, on the basis of its more flexible pay-as-you-watch pricing.
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We expect the Rwandan mobile market to maintain positive growth throughout our forecast period to2021 due to strong competition between MTN, Tigo and Airtel, as well as an expanding economy.However, operators will have to expand their networks beyond their core urban markets. By the end of2021 we expect the number of mobile subscriptions to rise to 10.9mn.