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Rwanda Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Rwanda Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Core Views

Economic growth in Rwanda continues to gather momentum. Weestimate that real GDP expanded by 5.9% in 2014, from 4.6% in2013, and in 2015 we forecast the pace of growth to be stronger stillat 6.9%. The return to trend growth levels will see Rwanda reaffirmits status as a regional outperformer.

Rwanda's standing with foreign investors is improving, but allegationsthat the government engages in extrajudicial killings and kidnappingscould mar the country's reputation as an economic reformer.

Surging population growth, low base effects and a governmentcommitted to market-friendly structural reforms will see Rwanda'seconomy expand rapidly over the coming years. The country'sdifficult relationship with its neighbours poses the gravest threatto this forecast; a major international crisis could derail Rwanda'sdevelopment hopes.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Kagame Gearing Up For 2016
It looks increasingly likely that President Paul Kagame will seek an unconstitutional third term in elections scheduled for 2016. Viewed
by many as the latest evidence of creeping authoritarianism, Kagame's route to a third term is made easier by a weak opposition, an
acquiescent public and a sound policy track record.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Activity
Growth Returning To Trend
Economic growth in Rwanda returned to trend levels in 2014, and we expect this momentum to be sustained over our 2015-2019
forecast period. Growth will be supported by prudent economic policies, heavy investment in infrastructure and the development of
higher value-added sectors.
TABLE: Economic Activit y
Regional Monetary Policy
East Africa Starting To Reap The Benefits Of Lower Oil Prices
While most consumers in Sub-Saharan Africa will benefit from lower prices at the pump over the coming months, we believe the benefits
will be most pronounced within East Africa – a net fuel importer.
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Rwandan Economy To 2024
Long-Term Economic Prospects Bright
Surging population growth, low base effects and a government committed to market-friendly structural reforms will see Rwanda's
economy expand rapidly over the coming years. The country's difficult relationship with its neighbours poses the gravest threat to this
forecast; a major international crisis could derail Rwanda's development hopes.
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Global Outlook
Deflationary Pressure
Table: Global Assumptions
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP Growt H, %
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOM BERG CON SENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
Table : Emergi ng Markets , Real GDP Growth , %

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