Rwanda Country Risk Report Q1 2016
The Rwandan Supreme Court ruled in favour of amending the Constitution in order for President Paul Kagame to run for a third term. We believe that he will continue to lead Rwanda in 2017.
Following a sharp slowdown in 2012, the Rwandan economy looks to have returned to the robust levels of growth that made it a regional outperformer for much of the last decade. Growth will be supported by prudent economic policies, heavy investment in infrastructure and a flourishing services sector.
A decline in foreign aid will leave a hole in the Rwandan government’s revenue envelope over the next few years that will be only partially plugged by a rising tax base. While this will result in a sizeable fiscal deficit, we believe that the country’s fiscal and debt trajectory remains sustainable.
Surging population growth, low base effects and a government committed to market-friendly structural reforms will see Rwanda’s economy expand rapidly over the coming years. The country’s difficult relationship with its neighbours poses the gravest threat to this forecast; a major international crisis could derail Rwanda’s development hopes.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Key Risks
- Chapter 1: Political Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Political Risk Index
- Domestic Politics
- Supreme Court In Favour Of Kagame's Third Term
- The Rwandan Supreme Court has ruled in favour of amending the Constitution in order for President Paul Kagame to run for a third
- term. We believe that he will continue to lead Rwanda in 2017.
- Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Economic Risk Index
- Economic Growth Outlook
- Investment Growth To Accelerate
- Rwanda's annual growth rate is set to average around 6.5% until 2024. Infrastructure projects that are focused on transport and energy
- will improve the ease of doing business in Rwanda and stimulate investment. We expect investment's contribution to real GDP growth to
- TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- Structural Characteristics
- Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Outlook
- Fiscal Policy Focuses On Capital Expenditures
- TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
- Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
- The Rwandan Economy To 2024
- A Bright Spark In Sub-Saharan Africa
- Rwanda has several structural strengths that will work in its favour over the coming decade, including sustainable drivers of real GDP
- growth, a strong commitment to reform and supportive business environment, rising productivity and services diversification. We are
- forecasting average long-term real GDP growth of 6.5% over the next 10 years.
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
- Global Outlook
- Exit The Dragon
- TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
- TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
- TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %