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Rwanda Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Rwanda Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Core Views

The Rwandan Supreme Court ruled in favour of amending the Constitution in order for President Paul Kagame to run for a third term. We believe that he will continue to lead Rwanda in 2017.

Following a sharp slowdown in 2012, the Rwandan economy looks to have returned to the robust levels of growth that made it a regional outperformer for much of the last decade. Growth will be supported by prudent economic policies, heavy investment in infrastructure and a flourishing services sector.

A decline in foreign aid will leave a hole in the Rwandan government’s revenue envelope over the next few years that will be only partially plugged by a rising tax base. While this will result in a sizeable fiscal deficit, we believe that the country’s fiscal and debt trajectory remains sustainable.

Surging population growth, low base effects and a government committed to market-friendly structural reforms will see Rwanda’s economy expand rapidly over the coming years. The country’s difficult relationship with its neighbours poses the gravest threat to this forecast; a major international crisis could derail Rwanda’s development hopes.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Supreme Court In Favour Of Kagame's Third Term
The Rwandan Supreme Court has ruled in favour of amending the Constitution in order for President Paul Kagame to run for a third
term. We believe that he will continue to lead Rwanda in 2017.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Investment Growth To Accelerate
Rwanda's annual growth rate is set to average around 6.5% until 2024. Infrastructure projects that are focused on transport and energy
will improve the ease of doing business in Rwanda and stimulate investment. We expect investment's contribution to real GDP growth to
rise.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
Structural Characteristics
Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Policy Focuses On Capital Expenditures
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Rwandan Economy To 2024
A Bright Spark In Sub-Saharan Africa
Rwanda has several structural strengths that will work in its favour over the coming decade, including sustainable drivers of real GDP
growth, a strong commitment to reform and supportive business environment, rising productivity and services diversification. We are
forecasting average long-term real GDP growth of 6.5% over the next 10 years.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Global Outlook
Exit The Dragon
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %

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