Rwanda Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Rwanda Country Risk Report Q1 2020

At Fitch Solutions, we have revised up our real GDP growth estimate for 2019 to 9.0%, from 7.7% previously, as a result of stronger than expected economic activity in the first half of the year.

We maintain our forecasts for Rwandan growth to come in at a robust 8.4% in 2020 and 8.7% in 2021, with expansion being driven by strong private consump-tion, coupled with government and private sector infrastructure investment.

These forecast growth rates imply that Rwanda will be a regional outperformer over the coming years, with large improvements in GDP per capita and living standards in prospect.

We see limited chance of any real threats to the position of Rwandan President Paul Kagame emerging over the next few years.

Several reports of opposition party members being killed or going missing in 2019 suggest that there will remain limited scope for opposition political forces to make any meaningful impact on the Rwandan political system.

Rwanda's border dispute with Uganda shows few signs of abating, increasing the landlocked country's reliance on Tanzania to prevent any larger disruption to its trade flows.

Key Risks

Rwanda could see a potential deterioration of the political climate over the longer term. Kagame's prolonged stint in office, along with fuelling an already strong cult of personality associated with a personal policymaking strategy, could create a power vacuum in case of a sudden departure.

Given historic enmity between Rwanda's Hutu and Tutsi communities, which has been in part restrained by Kagame's aggressive policies on prohibiting hate speech and criminalising genocide ideology, the president's sudden departure could significantly increase social instability.

Tensions in neighbouring DRC and Burundi might spill over to Rwanda, challenging the country's security environment.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Economy To Remain Robust In 2020 And 2021
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Rwandan Economy To 2028
A Regional Outperformer
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Rwanda Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
President's Tight Hold On Power To Persist In 2020 And 2021
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Strong Government But Multiple Threats To Stability In Rwanda
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: RWANDA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook