Russia Shipping Report Q1 2016
BMI View: BMI forecasts a return to growth in Russia's shipping sector in 2016, after contractions in grosstonnage and severe losses in container shipping we estimate the country saw in 2015. The country's widereconomy will also fare better in 2016 as imports see a robust return to positive growth while exports see amore modest gain. Infrastructure investments at the country's two largest ports of Novorossiysk and StPetersburg will expand capacity over the medium term, which bodes well for shipping volumes if theeconomy can stabilise on its current, tentative growth.
In 2015 Russian shipping volumes saw substantial contractions from mostly positive port estimates in 2014.
At the port of Novorossiysk gross tonnage fell to negative 5.0% growth in 2015, while the port of StPetersburg saw its overall tonnage fall by 7.0%. These losses were outstripped by contractions in containervolumes, as a depreciating rouble, slowdown in the Russian economy and a sharp dip in real privateconsumption took a toll. While real private consumption dropped by 8.4% y-o-y, box handling at the port ofSt Petersburg fell by 19.2% and at Novorossiysk even further by 30.5%.
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