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Russia Petrochemicals Report Q2 2015


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Russia Petrochemicals Report Q2 2015

BMI View: The outlook for the Russian petrochemicals industry continues to worsen as sanctions and lowoil prices continue to bite into local demand. We warn that the situation could damage the country'sambitious long-term production targets, which aim at the country becoming a major international supplierof basic polymers.

Sibur's recent warning of negative growth in coming quarters supports BMI's view that the industry willsuffer from the effects of falling demand from the automotive and construction sectors. BMI forecasts asevere recession in 2015, with GDP dropping 5.6% from 0.5% growth in 2014. As long as sanctions are inforce, they will have a corrosive effect on Russia's business climate and domestic demand. The economicfall-out from sanctions is bound to affect Russian petrochemicals consumption, with imports likely to feelthe brunt in the short term.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Production
Consumption
Table: Russia - Petrochemicals Forecasts, 2012-2019
Macroeconomic Forecast
Russia Economic Activity - Oil Prices Aggravating An Already Grim Macro Outlook
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Russia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Table: Cracker Capacity Data - Historical Data & Forecasts ('000 tpa)
Industry Trends And Developments
Petrochemicals And The Fallout From The Ukraine Crisis
Upstream
Refining
Petrochemicals
Fertiliser
Company Profile
Sibur Holding
Table: Financial highlights (RUBmn, Unless Stated Otherwise)
Lukoil
Table: Financial Results (USDmn)
Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNK)
Table: Financial Results (RUBmn)
Regional Overview
Europe Overview
Trouble In The East
Declining Capacities
Global Industry Overview
Outlook for 2015: Falling prices
Medium-term outlook
China versus the US: feedstock wars
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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