Russia Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Russia's gold and coal production growth will be the sector's relative bright spots, while PGM'sand iron ore output growth will grind to a halt. Low metal prices, the country's inadequate infrastructureand Western sanctions will continue to limit the sector's production growth.
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
Although Russia's mining sector holds significant production growth potential - due to its rich mineraldeposits, including coal, iron ore, gold and platinum - the country's bureaucratic hurdles, Westernsanctions and weak mineral prices will limit new projects from coming online and weaken mining outputgrowth over the coming quarters.
Coal: With 157bn tonnes (bnt) of coal deposits, Russia's holds the second-largest recoverable coalreserves in the world. We expect Russia's coal production to grow from 392mn tonnes (mnt) in 2015 to427mnt in 2019, as production ramps up in country's Kuznets basin. This would represent an averageannual production growth of 2.3% during 2016-2020, significantly lower than the average 6.4% during2010-2014.
Gold: Russia will remain the world's third largest gold producer, with significant potential to expandoutput and increase the country's share of global gold production. We expect Russia to account for 9.6%of global gold production in 2016. We forecast Russia's gold output to grow from 8.0 million ounces(moz) in 2016 to 8.4moz in 2020. This would represent an average annual growth of 1.5% during2016-2020, significantly slower than 5.3% during 2011-2015.
Iron Ore: Russia's iron ore production growth will be supported by the country's vast iron ore reservesand Metalloinvest's strategy to increase output through innovation at the firm's existing mines. Russiaholds more than 25bnt of iron ore reserves, making it the third largest holder of reserves, after Australiaand Brazil, respectively. We forecast Russia's iron ore production to grow from 110mnt in 2016 to123mnt in 2020, averaging annual growth of 2.7% during 2016-2020, showcasing consistent growthfollowing 2.7% y-o-y during 2010-2014.
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