Russia Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

Russia Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

BMI View: The difficulties Russia is facing in modernizing its transport system will impact the dynamics inthe freight market over our forecast period until 2020. Both road and rail infrastructure need substantialinvestment to realize its transit potential, however the tight fiscal situation in Russia and Western sanctionswill limit the Russian government's capacity to fund infrastructure projects. Sanctions prohibit theEuropean Bank for Reconstruction and Development to lend money to Russia and thereby hinderingRussia's capability to finance infrastructure projects.

Persistently low oil prices, weak investment growth and declining real incomes will prevent a swiftrecovery in the Russian economy in 2016. Russia will maintain a current account surplus in 2016 and 2017as imports remain subdued. We maintain our real GDP growth forecast for 2016 at 0.5%. Although we havedowngraded our forecast for 2017 from 2.3% to 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) as lower oil prices will prolong arecovery in the Russian economy. The economy's dependence on the oil sector makes it particularlyvulnerable to a sustained decline in energy prices. This will remain a key determinant of its economicperformance over the coming years.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Russia 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Russia 2012-2019)
Table: Russia's Main Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Table: Russia's Main Export Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Russia 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Russia 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Russia 2012-2019)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Aeroflot Cargo
AirBridgeCargo (ABC)
Federal Freight Company
Freight One (PGK)
Globaltrans
TransContainer
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
International Relations I
Table: Soviet And Russian Military Interventions Since 1945
International Relations II
Long-Term Political Outlook
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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