Russia Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI View: Russian defence spending will increase by 2% in 2016 amid declining international oil prices. New procurement will be driven by the need to control the country's borders, the fight against internal terrorism, the ongoing involvement in Ukraine and the Syrian civil war, and the need to modernise the armed forces. Moscow also continues to see the expansion of the EU and NATO close to its Western borders as a tangible security threat and an attempt by Western powers to encircle the country. This is also linked to Russian security concerns regarding the US, and Moscow's perception that it and its allied Western powers are seeking to export their values and political structures around the world.
Military expenditure in Russia will increase gradually in the coming years as economic conditions improve, reflecting the aforementioned security risks. Russia's defence manufacturers are focused on internal demand, as the country is almost self-reliant regarding military equipment. Having said that, local companies hold a strong international presence and are working to increase cooperation with foreign companies. In addition, the country's defence manufacturers are enjoying increased demand for their products as a result of increases in defence spending in the Asia-Pacific and Latin American regions, plus a resurgence in arms purchases from Russia's traditional markets in the developing world, notably Africa.
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