Romania Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q2 2016
BMI View: In light of an improving economy in Romania and the eurozone recovery, trade activity willgrow and private consumer demand will increase, providing opportunities for the freight sector in general.
As exports increase in agricultural and heavy machinery, rail freight will see moderate growth in 2016,while road freight will have the strongest growth due to improved domestic conditions and investment ininfrastructure.
BMI's Country Risk team holds a positive view on Romania's trade growth prospects in 2016, as favourableheadwinds for households will induce greater imports of consumer goods and new trade agreements willbolster exports. We expect that this positive outlook for trade growth will feed through into increasedvolumes on the country's freight transport network, forecasting healthy growth across all modes. Comingfrom a low base, air freight will be the outperformer, with road freight coming in second. This is in largepart due to their greater exposure to the buoyant consumer story in Romania as compared to rail freight.
Road freight is forecast to grow by 2.60% in 2016 due to strong GDP growth and trade activity. Consumerspending will increase further as a strong GDP outlook and the government's VAT cuts will strengthenconsumer purchasing power. With a currently poor road quality by regional standards, the sector is set tobenefit over the long term from investments in road network upgrading.
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