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Romania Banking & Financial Services Q4 2018

Romania Banking & Financial Services Q4 2018

Key View:

We continue to hold a positive outlook for the Romania banking and financial services sectors for the year 2018. This issupported by the fact that in terms of industry value, we expect to see average year-on-year growth of around 9.% between theyears of 2018 and 2022. This has largely been driven by the robust expectations for the country's economic growth forecasts overthe medium term, and its rising household incomes, which are generating higher demand for banking and finance sector services,as non-essential spending becomes more oriented towards these types of financial products. Financial inclusion levels of theRomanian population are on par with emerging Europe averages. The country's EU membership means that the sector is a veryeasy one for market players licensed to provide banking and financial services in other EU countries to penetrate. This creates veryfavourable market conditions for sector expansion. The main concerns for sector growth come in the form of the high levels ofpolitical and policy uncertainty, which have been especially elevated since the resignation of former Prime Minister Victor Ponta in2015. There are concerns surrounding the pro-cyclical fiscal loosening and unpredictable short- and medium-term budget strategy,which are posing threats to Romania’s sovereign creditworthiness. The current political agenda of the PSD-lead Romaniangovernment includes moving forward with several highly controversial policy initiatives. Some oncerns have also been raisedrecently as to the stability of the local banking sector in light of the uptick in lending activity that has been witnessed, and itsexposure to sovereign debt.


Key View
SWOT
Banking
Banking Snapshot
Forecast Scenario
Forecast Tables
Competitive Landscape
Regulatory Environment
Insurance
Insurance Snapshot
Competitive Landscape
Regulatory Environment
Asset Management
Asset Management Snapshot
Competitive Landscape
Regulatory Environment
Stock Exchanges
Stock Exchanges Snapshot
Competitive Landscape
Regulatory Environment
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Growth In Romania To Run Up Against Structural Limits
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Household Income Forecasts
Romania Demographic Outlook
Banking & Financial Services Methodology

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