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Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015

Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015

BMI View: We have scaled back our oil production forecasts for Congo-Brazzaville in 2015, but still hold to the view the country provides strong upside risk to production from small-scale shallow water fields. We now expect the gradual introduction of crude from the new shallow water Nene Marine field will be slower than first expected and as a result have scaled back our 2015 crude production forecasts to 288,220b/d from earlier estimates of 355,800b/d. Nevertheless, we believe Congo-Brazzaville has an opportunity to attract scarce exploration and capex funds in a low price environment as companies scale back on frontier exploration and concentrate on less risky exploration efforts. Therefore risks to our production forecasts increasingly lie to the upside.

Shallow water Elephant coming onstream. Eni has started producing crude from the Nene Marine field, just 16 months after its discovery and eight months after getting regulatory approval. However, production is ramping up slowly and in stages, causing BMI to scale back our overall production estimates for Congo- Brazzaville in 2015. We now forecast 2015 production to come in at 288,220b/d, down from original projects of 350,000b/d. Just 17 km offshore and in water depths of 28 meters, the Neme Marine field is expected to only produce 10% of its potential of 140,000b/d in 2015 before ramping up to full production in 2016. Operator Eni puts reserves from the field at 1.5 bn bbl.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2019)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Upstream Projects
Table: Congo Brazzaville Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Table: Oil Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Oil Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Upstream Production - Gas
Table: Gas Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Refining
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Refined Fuel Consumption
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Gas Consumption
Table: Gas Consumption (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Consumption (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Trade - Oil
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Emergent Producers Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
Mature Producers Continue To Underperform Their Potential
Falling Oil Price Trims Rewards
An Underwhelming Downstream
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Republic Of Congo - Risk/Reward Index
Congo Upstream Index - Rewards
Congo Upstream Index - Risks
Congo Downstream Index - Rewards
Congo Downstream Index - Risks
Market Overview
Republic Of Congo Energy Market Overview
Licensing and Regulation
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Congo
LNG
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players In The Republic Of Congo's Energy Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Total Congo
Eni
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Lower Risk Appetite Slowing Exploration Drive
Unconventionals: A New Frontier
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
High-Risk Continent
Downstream Blues
Global Industry Overview
Global Industry Overview - Five Themes For 2015: Oil & Gas
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage
Appendix
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
Africa - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Congo Brazzaville - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Congo Brazzaville- Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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